STOCK MARKET REPORT
■ DAILY PDF STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS REPORT OF USA + WORLD MARKETS
ANALYSIS DELIVERED VIA EMAIL BEFORE US-MARKET OPEN AS PDF
FOLLOWING IS COVERED IN THE REPORT:
■ SECTORS
■ BONDS
■ VOLATILTY SECURITIES
■ COUNTRY ETFs
■ CURRENCIES + OIL ETFs
■ 5 DAY PREDICTION TREND
■ PRICE
■ LONG & SHORT RECOMMODATIONS
■ 1 YEAR PERFORMANCE, RECOMMODATIONS
■ DESCRIPTION
■ 5 DAY PREDICTION
PICTURE VISUALIZES:
1. MARKET DIRECTION
2. MARKET LEVEL IN REGARD TO POSSIBLE UPCOMING TURNING POINTS.
THE PICTURE CONTAINS 3 INDICATORS WHICH DISPLAY THE % OF SECURITIES IN FOLLOWING TRENDS:
UP
FLAT
DOWN
THE COMBINATION OF ALL 3 PREDICTION, WILL HELP TO INTENDIFY TURNING POINTS.
THE 3 GRAPHS PREDICT THE TREND FOR THE NEXT 5 TRADING DAYS + HINT MAJOR HAPPENINGS BEFORE THEY TAKE PLACE.
ACCURACY: +-70%.
THE 3 GRAPHS ALSO SHOW MARKET TIMES OF UNCLEAR TRENDS.
IN SUCH MARKET TIMES, WAIT WITH PLACING TRADES UNTIL A CLEARER PICTURES ESTABLISHES.
■ OVERALL COMPOSITE
MODEL OUTPUT
THE GRAPH SWINGS AROUND A ZERO LEVEL.
THE NUMBER WILL IDENTIFY TURNING POINTS + SHOW IN WHAT STATE THE OVERALL MARKET STANDS.
EXTREM MARKET CONDITION ARE EASY SPOTTED.
■ COMPOSITE % OVER
ZERO THRESHOLD
THE GRAPH SHOWS:
》OVER BOUGHT LEVELS
》OVER SOLD LEVELS
THE GRAPH IS DERIVED FROM A POOL OF SECURITIES, WHICH ARE CALCULATED THRU ADAPTING PATTERN DEDECTION.
LEVELS OVER 75% ARE CONSIDERED OVER BOUGHT + CORRECTION CAN OCCURE.
LEVELS LOWER 25%, ARE CONSIDERED OVER SOLD + REVERSAL COULD OCCURE.
COMPARE RECENT HISTORICAL TURNING POINTS + SLOPE DIRECTION.
■ GLOBAL MARKETS IN LONG %
50+- GLOBAL STOCK MARKETS ARE ANALYSED + OVERLAYED WITH AN ADAPTIVE PATTERN TRADING SYSTEM.
THE % RESULT IS THE SUM OF ALL MARKETS IN LONG HOLD POSITION.
A RESULT OF 100% WOULD INDICATE, THAT ALL ANALYSED WORLD MARKETS, EXCLUDING THE US-MARKET, ARE IN LONG HOLD.
A VALUR OF 50%, SIGNALS HALF OF ALL MARKETS ARE IN A LONG POSITION + THE OTHER HALF OF THE MARKET IN SHORT POSITION.
A VALUE OF 0% INDICATES ALL MARKETS ARE IN SHORT POSITION.
■ CORE INDEX vs S&P 500
COMPARED TO THE S&P 500 INDEX, THE CORE INDEX IS THE TOTAL OUTCOME OF THE ANALYSIS.
THE INDICATOR VALUE SWINGS AROUND A 0 LEVEL.
• POSITIVE VALUES ARE BULLISH
• NEGATIVE VALUES ARE BEARISH
THE SLOPE DIRECTION CAN HINT MOMENTUM IN THE CURRENT DIRECTION.
THE VALUE HAS A NUMERIC MAXIMUM + MINIMUM LEVEL. HOWEVER, JUST BECAUSE THE GRAPH ARRIVES AT EXTREMS LEVELS, DOES NOT MEAN, IT REVERSES INSTANTLY. BULL OR BEAR MARKETS CAN DRAG ON.
REFERE THE NEWEST VALUE TO HISTORICAL LEVELS.
FOR ASSETS WHICH FOLLOW THE MARKET:
IN OVER BOUGHT LEVELS, START TO CLOSE POSITIONS.
IN OVER SOLD LEVELS, START TO OPEN POSITIONS.
THERE ARE COUNTLESS TRADING + INVESTMENT APPROCHES.
I BELIVE + PRACTICE DIVERSIFICATION, STAYING OUT OF THE HERD, AHEAD OF HERD.
NOT ONLY, AND THIS IS IMPORTANT, IN DIFFERENT SECURITIES, BUT ALSO HAVING DIFFERENT OPENING POSITION PRICES IN THE SAME STOCK HOLDINGS.
WITH THIS PRACTICE + THE EDGE OF THE MARKET INSIGHT, ONE CAN RISK A TRANCHE OF A POSITION IN A SELL OFF MARKET, BUY THE FEAR. THEN ON THE WAY TO RECOVERY, ADD A COUPLE MORE POSITIONS.
■ 3 DAY COMPOSITE MARKET
ALLOCATION BELL CURVE ANALYSIS
THE THREE BELL CURVES DISPLAY WHERE THE MARKET SECURITIES ARE ALLOCATED, WITHIN A NUMERIC OUTPUT VALUE RANGING FROM -10 TO +10.
THE THREE RECORDINGS, VISUALIZE THE DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT OF THE MARKET FOR THE LAST THREE TRADING DAYS.
BY COMPARING THE INDIVIDUAL 3 WAVES, ONE CAN DETECT THE CURRENT DIRECTION OF THE MARKET, HINT REVERSALS.
3 DAY COMPOSITE MARKET ALLOCATION - REVERSAL FROM SELL OFF - 2021 12 06
■ CHARTS COLLECTION
TO GET QUICK IDEA WHERE PRICE + ANALYSIS STANDS.
■ OIL INDEX
■ VOLATILITY - BROAD INDEX %
■ S&P 500 PUT / CALL RATIO
■ VIX PUT / CALL RATIO
■ COMPOSITE PRICE INDEX
■ COMPOSITE VOLUME INDEX
■ WHY BROAD MARKET ANALYSIS ?
TO KNOW WHERE THE MARKET STANDS + AN ABOUT TREND DIRECTION IS IMPORTANT FOR ANY INVESTING + TRADING STYLE.
STOCKS TEND TO MOVE WITH MARKETS.
CASH SECURITIES TEND TO HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH THE SECURITY MARKET.
IF THE MARKET IS BULLISH, STOCKS FOLLOW. SOME STRONGER, SOME LESS.
SOME SECURITIES HAVE NO CORRELATION WITH THE MARKET.
CORRELATION IS A HISTORICAL STATISTICAL NUMERIC VALUE.
THE STRONGER THE CORRELATION OF A STOCK TO A BROAD MARKET INDEX, SUCH AS THE S&P 500, THE MORE IMPORTANT A BROAD MARKET ANALYSIS WILL BE.
IF FOR EXAMPLE THE BROAD MARKET ANALYSIS REACHES A LEVEL WHERE IT WEAKEND AT HISTORICAL LEVELS, LONG POSITION IN GAINS, ARE REDUCED, AND OR REFRAIN FROM ADDING POSITION INTO THE MARKET DIRECTION ABOUT TO TURN.
THEREFORE, ESPECALLY BUT NOT LIMITING TO RETAIL INVESTORS + TRADERS, THE BROAD MARKET ANALYSIS CAN INCREASE PROFIT + REDUCE RISK.
A SMALL FISH IN THE GAME, INVESTORS + TRADERS, CAN MOVE IN + OUT, BEFORE THE BIG WHALES ARE ABLE TO.
NOTE, A TYPICAL MEDIAN HEGDE FUND RETURNS LESS THEN 4% PER YEAR, OVER A TIME WINDOW WIDER THEN 10 YEARS + THE TYPICAL BUSINESS CYCLE.
NOTEWORTHY, A LOT OF FUNDS WILL FAIL WITHIN LESS THEN A DECADE.
FOR A RETAIL TRADER, THIS PERFORMANCE NUMBERS SHOULD BE MORE EASILY ACHIVED, SINCE THERE IS LESS CAPITAL TO BE MOVED.
■ "...JUST BUY THE INDEX..."
THE S&P 500 YIELDS OVER DECADES AN AVERAGE OF 9% PER YEAR.
HOWEVER, THE PERFORMANCE CAN BE A LOT LESS, IF AN INVESTOR OR TRADER BUYS AT THE TOP, BEFORE A SERVERE MARKET DECLINE.
AN INVESTOR BUYING INTO THE JAPANESE MARKET 1989, WOULD AT THIS TIME OF WRITING, 2021, STILL BE IN THE RED.
■ " ... LET THE PROFITS RUN ... "
... UNTIL THE NEXT FLASH CRASH.
THIS MIGHT WORK, IF ONE CATCHES A STRONG TREND IN WHATEVER DIRECTION, EARLY.
TRAILING STOPS WILL NOT WORK, IF EVERYBODY SEEKS THE EXIT DOOR. YOUR STOP MIGHT BE 5% UNDER THE CURRENT PRICE 》 REALITY WILL CLOSE THE POSITION PAINFULLY LOWER.
CLOSING POSITIONS, AUTOMATIC OR MANUALY, IN A SELL OFF MARKET, IS LIKE CATCHING A FALLING KNIVE.
RETAIL INVESTORS AND TRADERS ARE AT THE TIME OF WRITING, 2021, VERY LIMITED, WHEN IT COMES TO OVER NITE TRADING. AND, WHO WANTS TO STAY UP ALL NIGHT ANYWAY.
TO BE THE MASS MARKETS A STEP OR TWO AHEAD, CAN WORK WONDERS
■ BEWARE LONG TERM MARKET CONDITION
AT THE TIME OF WRITTING, DECEMBER 2021, MARKETS ARE IN A LONG TERM BULL RUN.
HOWEVER, EVEN SO THERE IS GROWTH + VALUE ADDED, ONE MUST BE AWARE OF THE FISCAL POLICY.
IF THE MONETARY POLICY MAKERS INFLATE THE MONEY SUPPLY, OVER WHATEVER TIME SPAN, THE MARKET WILL GO UP.
ONE LOOKS AT TRADING SECURITIES IN THAT ERA, CAN BE FOOLED INTO SAYING "... WHAT CAN GO WRONG ... ?".
ANSWER: A LOT !
NOTE, THIS IS ESPECALY TRUE, IF THE INCEPTION DATE OF A SECURITY, MATCHES THE START OF THE FISCAL EXPANSION.
AS SOON THE MONETARY EXPANSION IS OVER, SO WILL BE THE MARKET BULL RUN.
OF COURSE, REAL VALUE + TRUE GROWTH, WILL ALLWAYS REFLECT IN THE RESPECTIVE STOCKS.
BROAD MARKET WISE, EXPECT A BUMPY RIDE.
THEREFORE, TO KNOW WHERE THE BROAD MARKET STANDS, WILL BE IN A HONEST MONETARY ENVORIMENT, CRUCIAL TO SUCCESS.
■ INDIVIDUAL STOCK PICKING
INDIVIDUAL STOCK PICKING MAY WORK, IT IS HOWEVER TIME CONSUMING + REQUIRES EXPERTISE.
EVEN A CAREFULLY SELECTED STOCK, MIGHT TURN BEARISH, IF THE BROAD MARKET MOVES DOWN.
THERFORE, KNOWING WHERE THE MARKET STANDS, IS OF GREAT IMPORTANCE.
■ "... THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND ..."
... TO THE TIME WHERE THE MARKET REVERSES ITS DIRECTION.
THE TREND ALLWAYS LAGS.
IN SIDEWAY MARKETS, LOSSES ARE HIGHER THEN PREVIOUSES GAINS.
THE ART TO USE THE TREND, IS TO KNOW THE OVERALL MARKET SITUATION.
IF THE MARKET IS BETWEEN A OVERSOLD + OVERBOUGHT LEVEL, THE TREND CAN BE USED TO RIDE WITH THE WAVE.
ONCE THE MARKET ARRIVES INTO OVERBOUGHT OR OVERSOLD LEVELS, THE TRADER START TO TRADE AGAINST THE CURRENT TREND.
■ "... BUY THE DIP ..."
COMING SOON
■ TRADING SYSTEMS
TRADING SYSTEMS ON INDIVIDUAL STOCKS, NEED TO BE HIGHLY SOPHISTICATED.
FURTHER MORE, ACTIVE TRADING SYSTEM, WITH CONSISTEND, REPETIVE GAINS, ARE YIELDING IN MOST CASES ONLY MEDICORE.
THE SYSTEM MUST BE SECRETIVE. ONCE KNOWN TO TOO MANY PARTICIPANTS IN THE MARKET, THE PROFIT POTENTIAL WILL FADE QUICKLY, KNOW AS ALPHA DECAY.
■ GETTING PAID vs DO NOT HAVE FUN
"... Compounding is the process in which an asset's earnings, from either capital gains or interest, are reinvested to generate additional earnings over time. ... Compounding, therefore, differs from linear growth, where only the principal earns interest each period. ..."
I WANT TO GET PAID. HOLDING UP THE LIFE TILL RETIREMENT NO OPTION.
IF ONE HAS ENOUGH CAPITAL, CAN INVEST TO HOLD A STOCK A LIFE TIME.
REALITY FOR MOST IS DIFFERENT.
THEREFORE, THE COMMON MAN NEEDS TO APPLY HIM TO THE TOPIC, TO MAKE A PROFIT - PAY OUT - AND PAY THE BILLS.
MY APPROACH IS FOR ALL CLASSES. BUT I KEEP THE BILL PAYERS IN MIND.
■ FEEDBACK FROM YOU
... ABOUT PUBLIC TRADED ETFs + ALIKE, NON CAPPED, IN BUSINESS AT LEAST 10+ YEARS, BETTER 20+ YEARS, WITH GREAT, STEADY PERFORMANCE RESULTS + NO MINIMUM OR MAXIMUM CAPITAL RESTRICTIONS ARE WELCOMED. WE ARE INTERESTED TO HEAR FROM THIS HIDDEN HOLY GRAILS.
■ KEY TAKE AWAYS
》 TO KNOW WHERE THE MARKET IS HEADING, IS AN ABSOLUT MUST.
》 NO MATTER HOW YOU TRADE + INVEST, UNDERSTANDING WHERE THE MARKET STANDS, WILL LEAD TO SUCCESS + BETTER PERFORMANCE.
》 IN ORDER TO BE AHEAD OF THE GAME, ONE NEEDS AN EDGE OVER THE MASS MARKET PLAYERS.
THEREFORE, INVESTOR + TRADER CAN:
》 INCREASE PROFIT
》 REDUCE RISK
》 REDUCE EMOTION
》 REDUCE STRESS
》 STAY FOCUSED
》 STAY RATIONAL
■ OTHER
ANALYSE DATA BASIS: END OF DAY
MAIN MARKET: USA
TRADING SECURITIES: STOCK, ETF, ETN
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